IATA: Global airlines to lose $9B in 2009 - Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal:

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The ’s (IATA) new forecast is staggeringluy worse thanits $4.7 billion collective loss forecastr made just three months ago. The air carrierr trade group also downgraded its loss estimatee for 2008to $10.4 billion from $8.5 billion. “Therde is no modern precedent for today’s economic meltdown,” IATA Director General and CEO Giovanni Bisignani said in anews “The ground has shifted. Our industry has been This is the most difficult situation that the industr yhas faced.” After the Sept. 11, 2001, terro r attacks on the United industry revenues fell by7 percent, Bisignanii said, and took three years to rebound to pre-9/112 levels.
Revenue will fall from $528 billion in 2008 to $448 billionj in 2009 (15 IATA said. “This time we face a 15 percen drop—a loss of revenues of $80 billion—in the middle of a globapl recession,” Bisignani said during IATA’s annua l industry summit. “Our future depends on a drasticv reshapingby partners, governments and industry. We canno bear the cost of government micro-regulation, crazyt taxation and partners abusing theirmonopolyt power.” North American carriers will generallyg fair better than foreign carriers, IATA said, and shouls narrow their losses for the year.
North American airlinesa will lose $1 billion in 2008, dramatically less than the $5.1 billion lost in 2008, as out-of-the-money fuel hedges lapsre and capacity cuts kick in to right capacituwith demand. Previously, IATA said North Americanj carriers would turn a modest profir forthe year. Asia-Pacific and European carrierds are likely to take the biggest losing $3.3 billion and $1.8 respectively. Relaxed fuel prices over the firs t five months of 2009 have but prices have begun to climb inrecentt weeks. IATA projects the industry fuel bill to fallfrom $165 billiom in 2008 to $59 billion in on an $56 per barrel average price of oil.
“Thew risk that we have seen in recent weekzs is that even the slightest glimmer of economid hope sends oilprices higher,” Bisignani said. Greedyu speculation must not hold the globaleconomty hostage. Failure to act by governmentse wouldbe irresponsible.” Globally, airline s are in a better cash with more liquidity than in past But, Bisignani warned “a long L-shapedx recovery could drain the industry of cash.
” Bisignani notef industry consolidation, such as the merger between Atlanta-based DAL) and , that have made player But he railed against what he called “archaicx limitations on ownership” that prevent the merginb of carriers from different countries.